Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Analysis 2019: Costa del Sol

Prime sales (homes over €900,000) are up by a third in Málaga Province and prices rise in Marbella and Málaga City.

Market Analysis: Costa del Sol 2019

After two general elections in nine months, Spain now has its first ever coalition Government, made up of the Socialist Party (PSOE), headed up by Pedro Sánchez, and Unidas Podemos with its leader Pablo Iglesias. The new coalition will hopefully bring some level of stability after a fairly turbulent year politically and will be addressing political, territorial and social dimensions, which could be challenging but could see some positive outcomes.

Read our full analysis of Spain’s property market here

Málaga City

Average Sales Prices – Málaga City

Average property prices in Málaga City showed an annual increase of 3.6% in December 2019, ending the year on €2,033 per square metre. Prices also rose in nearby Marbella, Estepona and Benahavís, where they averaged €2,998 per square metre (8.7% increase), €2,214 per square metre (7.2% increase) and €2,993 per square metre (2.6% increase) respectively. Since December 2014 these areas have seen significant property price increases. Estepona has seen prices rise by nearly 50%, Marbella by almost 30% and Benahavís by almost 18%. Prices in Málaga City have increased by just over 31% in the five years to December 2019. (Idealista, property resale prices)

Average Rental Prices – Málaga City

Average rental prices in Málaga City showed an annual increase of 5.9% in December 2019, ending the year on €10.4 per square metre. (Idealista)

Volume of Sales – Málaga City

The number of sales transactions in Málaga City in the first nine months of 2019 (4,849 sales) decreased by 17.1% compared to the same period in 2018 (5,849 sales). Compared to the first nine months of 2014 (2,727 sales) the number of transactions has increased by almost 78% but it is just over 32% below the number of sales in the same period in 2007 (7,148 sales). (Ministry of Development, Spain)

New Homes Sales – Málaga City

Sales of new homes in Málaga City represented 12.8% of the total number of sales in the first nine months of 2019, a smaller proportion than in the same period in 2018 (10.4%). The proportion is also notably smaller than it was in the first nine months of 2007 when just over 43% of the total sales were for new homes. (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Marbella

Average Sales Prices – Marbella

Average property prices in Marbella showed an annual increase of 8.7% in December 2019, ending the year on €2,998 per square metre. Prices also rose in nearby Estepona, Málaga City and Benahavís, where they averaged €2,214 per square metre (7.2% increase), €2,033 per square metre (3.6% increase) and €2,993 per square metre (2.6%) respectively. Marbella has seen prices rise by nearly 30% since December 2014. (Idealista, resale property prices)

See graph above in Málaga City

Average Rental Prices – Marbella

Average rental prices in Marbella showed an annual increase of 1.2% in December 2019, ending the year on €10.9 per square metre. (Idealista)

Volume of Sales – Marbella

The number of sales transactions in Marbella in the first nine months of 2019 (2,738 sales) decreased by 13.8% compared to the same period in 2018 (3,175 sales). The number of transactions is still below the number during the first nine months of 2014 when there were 2,803 sales – down by 2.3% – and it is also still 5.6% below the number of sales in the same period in 2007 (2,899 sales). (Ministry of Development, Spain)

New Homes Sales – Marbella

Sales of new homes in Marbella represented 8.8% of the total number of sales in the first nine months of 2019, a smaller proportion than in the same period in 2018 (4.2%). The proportion is also smaller than it was in the first nine months of 2007 when almost 19% of the total sales were for new homes. (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Málaga Province

Volume of Sales – Málaga Province

Compared to the first nine months of 2014 the number of transactions in Málaga Province in the same period in 2019 has risen from 16,931 to 22,721, an increase of just over 34%. However, year-on-year the number of sales transactions in the first nine months of 2019 registered a decrease of 11.5% and it is still 26% below the number of sales in the same period in 2007 (30,722 sales). (Ministry of Development, Spain)

New Homes Sales – Málaga Province

Sales of new homes in Málaga Province represented 10.9% of the total number of sales in the first nine months of 2019, a slightly larger proportion than in the same period in 2018 (10.1%). However, the proportion has reduced significantly since the first nine months of 2007 when almost 46% of the total sales were for new homes. (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Prime Sales – Málaga Province

Latest official data shows that the number of prime market sales transactions (over €900,000) in Málaga Province in the first six months of 2019  (for which data is available) increased by almost 33% compared to the prime sales in the same period in 2018, from 171 to 207 sales. The number of prime sales in the whole of 2018 (349 sales) has almost doubled compared to the number of prime sales in the whole of 2014 (176 sales). (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Value of Sales – Málaga Province

The total value of sales transactions in Málaga Province in the first nine months of 2019 (€4.48 billion) registered a very slight decrease, of 0.4%, when compared to amount of trading in the same period in 2018 (€4.50 billion). Compared to the first nine months of 2014 (€2.67 billion) the total value of sales transactions has increased by almost 68% but it is still just over 28% below the total value in the same period in 2007 (€6.23 billion). (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Tourism & Foreign Buyers, Costa del Sol

The number of passengers arriving at Málaga-Costa del Sol airport in 2019 was just over 19.8 million, an increase of 4.4% over passenger arrivals in 2018. (Aena)

International tourism in Andalucía in the first eleven months of 2019 increased by 3.5% over the same period in 2018. The region hosted just over 11.5 million international tourists in the first eleven months of 2019. (INE)

Foreign buyers in Málaga Province accounted for 28.9% of the total sales in the third quarter of 2019, a slightly larger proportion than in the third quarter of 2018 (27.2%) and larger than the proportion in the whole of 2012 when they accounted for almost 24% of all buyers. (Spanish Land Registry)

Lucas Fox Marbella Buyer Profile

Note the following figures are provisional:

  • INE (Tourism) (from January 2019)
  • Ministry of Development, Spain (from Q3 2019)

View Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Analysis 2019: Spain

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