Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Analysis Q1-Q3 2019: Costa del Sol

It has been a fairly turbulent few months politically for Spain and the recent elections were once again inconclusive with no overall majority for Pedro Sánchez and his socialist party (PSOE). However they have reached a preliminary coalition deal with the anti-austerity Podemos party to try to form a government. This should bring greater stability to the country, which is good news for the country’s property market.

Read our full analysis of Spain’s property market here

Málaga Province

Volume of Sales – Málaga Province

Compared to the second quarter of 2014, the number of transactions in Málaga Province in the second quarter of 2019 has risen from 6.349 to 8.229, an increase of 31%. However, the number of sales is still 21% below the second quarter of 2007 (10.490 sales), around the peak of Spanish sales transactions. (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Year-on-year the number of sales transactions decreased by 17% in the second quarter of 2019. However, when compared to the first quarter of 2019 sales have risen by 9%. (Ministry of Development, Spain)

New Homes Sales – Málaga Province

Sales of new homes in Málaga Province represented 11% of the total number of sales in the second quarter of 2019, a slightly higher proportion than in the second quarter of 2018 (10%). The proportion has reduced significantly since the second quarter of 2007 when 41% of the total sales were for new homes. (Ministry of Development, Spain).

Prime Sales – Málaga Province

Latest official data shows that the number of prime market sales transactions (over €900,000) in Málaga Province in the first quarter of 2019 increased by 8% compared to the prime sales in the first quarter of 2018, from 79 to 85 sales. The number of prime sales in the whole of 2018 (349 sales) has almost doubled compared to the number of prime sales in the whole of 2014 (176 sales). (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Value of Sales – Málaga Province

The total value of sales transactions in Málaga Province in the second quarter of 2019 decreased by 7% over the amount of trading in the same period in 2018, but when compared to the first quarter of 2019 it rose by 17%. Compared to the second quarter of 2014 the total value of sales transactions has increased by 63% but it is still 27% below that of the same quarter of 2007. (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Málaga City

Volume of Sales – Málaga City

The number of sales transactions in Málaga City in the second quarter of 2019 (1,638 sales) decreased by 29% compared to the same quarter in 2018 (2,317 sales). Compared to the second quarter of 2014 (936 sales) the number of transactions has risen by 75% but is still 32% below the second quarter of 2007 (2,395 sales). (Ministry of Development, Spain)

New Homes Sales – Málaga City

Sales of new homes in Málaga City represented 7% of the total number of sales in the second quarter of 2019, a smaller proportion than in the second quarter of 2018 (11%). The proportion is still notably less than in the second quarter of 2007 when 35% of the total sales were for new homes. (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Average Sales Prices – Málaga City

Average property prices in Málaga City showed an annual increase of 4% in September 2019, ending the month on €2,050 per square metre. Prices also rose in nearby Estepona and Marbella, where they averaged at €2,166 per square metre (8.5% increase) and €2,897 per square metre (7.8% increase) respectively. However prices in Benahavís registered a small decrease, of 1%, averaging €2,839 per square metre in September 2019. Since September 2014 these areas have seen significant property price increases. Estepona has seen prices rise by nearly 47%, Marbella by almost 30% and Benahavís by over 20%. Prices in Málaga City have increased by just under 35% in the five years to September 2019. (Idealista, property resale prices)

Average Rental Prices – Málaga City

Average rental prices in Málaga City showed an annual increase of 4% in September 2019, ending the month on €9.9 per square metre. (Idealista)

Marbella

Volume of Sales – Marbella

The number of sales transactions in Marbella in the second quarter of 2019 (1,029 sales) decreased by 16% compared to the same quarter in 2018 (1,221 sales). However, sales increased by 24% when compared to the first quarter of 2019 (829 sales). Compared to the second quarter of 2014 (1,141 sales) the number of transactions has decreased by 10% but it is now only around 1% below the second quarter of 2007 (1,018 sales). (Ministry of Development, Spain)

New Homes Sales – Marbella

Sales of new homes in Marbella represented 11% of the total number of sales in the second quarter of 2019, a higher proportion than in the second quarter of 2018 (4%). The proportion is still less than in the second quarter of 2007 when 22% of the total sales were for new homes. (Ministry of Development, Spain)

Average Sales Prices – Marbella

Average property prices in Marbella showed an annual increase of 7.8% in September 2019, ending the month on €2,897 per square metre. Prices also rose in nearby Estepona and Málaga City, where prices in September 2019 averaged at €2,166 per square metre (8.5% increase) and €2,050 per square metre (4% increase) respectively. However prices in Benahavís registered a small decrease, of 1%, averaging €2,839 per square metre in September 2019. Marbella has seen prices rise by nearly 30% since September 2014. (Idealista, resale property prices)

See graph above in Málaga City

Average Rental Prices – Marbella

Average rental prices in Marbella showed an annual decrease of 2.4% in September 2019, ending the month on €10.8 per square metre. (Idealista)

Tourism & Foreign Buyers, Costa del Sol

The number of passengers arriving at Málaga-Costa del Sol airport in the first nine months of 2019 was just over 15.6 million, an annual increase of 5% over passenger arrivals in the same period in 2018. (Aena)

International tourism in Andalucía in the first eight months of 2019 increased by 3% over the same period in 2018. The region hosted just over 8.3 million international tourists in this period. (INE)

Foreign buyers in Málaga Province accounted for 28% of the total sales in the second quarter of 2019, a similar proportion to the second quarter of 2018 (27%) and a slightly higher than the proportion in 2012 when they accounted for just over 24% of all buyers. (Spanish Land Registry)

Lucas Fox Marbella Buyer Profile

Note the following figures are provisional:

• INE (Tourism) (from January 2019)
• Ministry of Development, Spain (from Q2 2019)

View Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Analysis Q1-Q3 2019: Spain

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